A LEADOUT

Velogames Italy 2023 – Part 1

We anticipated it and we were eagerly waiting for it, the Giro D’Italia 2023 is here. Guilio Ciccone was the first to be ruled out to disturb an eagerly Remco vs Roglič battle! While the fan base cheering for Almeida or Tao Georgehan Hart is undeniable, the uninvited guest to the duel is named Covid.

All eyes will be on Mads Pedersen for sprints as he looks to secure the Ciclamino jersey but this will be far from a one way fight as Michael Matthews will have some stages that might suit him better. Speed-wise, Groves and Gaviria might be the fastest men here.

The Maglia azura rewarding the KOM is often figures as you go prize, particularly for the GC leaders having already been cast aside very early. Nevertheless, Lennard Kamna, Victor Lafay and Gino Mader are 3 of the most likely to be fighting it out for the mountain points.

This year’s Italian Grand Tour features 2+1 time-trial cumulating over 70km of individual reliance. While the last time-trial is purely reserved for climbers, the first two are king enough to reward the expert from the discipline. All eyes will be on local man Filippo Ganna and his closest rival Stephan Küng. Both have improved their climbing and could feature in the last time-trial.

Finally, the classics season and the one week stage races have showcased to the front some of the most inform riders. 22 year old, Ben Healy will be the most followed rider after his antics in the Ardennes. Meanwhile, the list of riders tipped for stage win from break-away is non exhaustive. Bauke Mollema and Magnus Cort Nielsen will both be aiming to complete their grand slam.

Interestingly, the number of breakaway wins has drastically decreased with the nature of the race and the leaders most likely going to fight it out for those bonus seconds as well!

The Parcours

Stage 1 

Distance 19.6 km
Giro D’Italia 2023 starts off with an ITT, running relatively flat for roughly 15 km and ascending up to the finish line, where riders will be able to earn KOM points.

Final kilometres 
In the final 3 km, riders will face a slope of 5.4% gradient for 1.3 km and after descending slightly they will go up again against a 2% gradient for the final 750 meters. 

Favourites for stage win
GANNA Filippo, EVENEPOEL Remco.

Dark horse – KÜNG Stefan

Contenders for top 10 finish
VAN WILDER Ilan, CORT Magnus, THOMAS Geraint, ROGLIČ Primož, DENNIS Rohan, TRATNIK Jan, LEKNESSUND Andreas, MATTHEWS Michael, MOLLEMA Bauke, PEDERSEN Mads, ALMEIDA João, MCNULTY Brandon, VINE Jay.

Stage 2 

Distance 201 km 
Stage 2 starts from Teramo and finishes at San Salvo, showing a relatively flat race interspersed with a few mild ascents. 80 km into the race, riders will face a 4 km climb to Silvi Paese and can earn KOM points.  

Final kilometres 
The final three kilometers are completely flat.

Analysis
We should be having our first traditional bunch sprint is expected here.

Favourites for stage win
PEDERSEN Mads, GROVES Kaden.

Dark horse – GAVIRIA Fernando.

Contenders for top 10 finish
BALLERINI Davide, CAVENDISH Mark, CONSONNI Simone, BYSTRØM Sven Erik (or MARIT Arne), DEKKER David, DAINESE Alberto, MATTHEWS Michael, ACKERMANN Pascal.

Stage 3 

Distance 216 km 
First part of the stage 3 begins with a flat race for roughly 170 km and leads up to the second part of the race, a climb of 6-7% gradient. Shortly after, the riders will face a second climb. 

Final kilometres 
After the second peak, the route descends until at 203 km approximately and then goes up again slightly until the final kilometer. One kilometer before the finish line, riders will face a a descend and at the 350 meters mark, they will finish uphill (5% gradient). 

Analysis
There is going to be fireworks as from 173 km of the race where the riders will face their first climb. roglic will try Remco and probably bring him to battle out the modifications points and possibly a small bunch sprint.

Favourites for stage win
ROGLIČ Primož, EVENEPOEL Remco.

Dark horse – MATTHEWS Michael & LAFAY Victor & ROTA Lorenzo.

Contenders for top 10 finish
VENDRAME Andrea, PASQUALON Andrea, VLASOV Aleksandr, KÄMNA Lennard, URÁN Rigoberto, CARTHY Hugh, HEALY Ben, CORT Magnus, PINOT Thibaut, GEOGHEGAN HART TaoARENSMAN Thymen, GANNA Filippo, SIVAKOV Pavel, THOMAS Geraint, BARGUIL Warren, MOLLEMA Bauke, ALMEIDA João, PEDERSEN Mads, ULISSI Diego.

Stage 4 

Distance 175 km 
Stage 4 is a hilly race, starting at Venosa and finishing at Lago Laceno. Riders will face two categorised climbs and will need to ascend sharply until the final 4 kms. 

Final kilometres 
The last mountain climb (6% gradient) is at Colle Molella, 3 km before the finish line. After the peak, the route descends slightly until levelling out over the next 2 kms.

Analysis
There is no second guessing; This long horrible day will lead us to a Primož Roglič VS Remco Evenepoel. Can a third wheel hold on?

Favourites to stage win
ROGLIČ Primož, EVENEPOEL Remco.

Contenders for top 10 finish
CARUSO Damiano, BUITRAGO Santiago, HAIG Jack, MÄDER Gino, VLASOV Aleksandr, LAFAY Victor, URÁN Rigoberto, CARTHY Hugh, FORTUNATO Lorenzo, PINOT Thibaut, ROTA Lorenzo, GEOGHEGAN HART Tao, SIVAKOV Pavel, THOMAS Geraint, POZZOVIVO Domenico, KUSS Sepp, BARGUIL Warren, LEKNESSUND Andreas, DUNBAR Eddie, ALMEIDA João, MCNULTY Brandon.

Stage 5 

Distance 171 km 
Stage 5 is a hilly race whereby the route levels out 30 km before the finish line and could end in a bunch sprint.

Analysis
This is the chance for riders who lost some time already to try to get in the break away and make it last (Scenario A). Scenario B: A relatively smaller peloton makes is back for a sprint.

Contenders for Scenario A
VENDRAME Andrea, OLDANI Stefano, BATTISTELLA Samuele, PASQUALON Andrea, KÄMNA Lennard, HEALY Ben, CORT Magnus, ARENSMAN Thymen, ROTA Lorenzo, CLARKE Simon, VERONA Carlos, ZANA Filippo, GHEBREIGZABHIER Amanuel, MOLLEMA Bauke, COVI Alessandro, FORMOLO Davide.

Contenders for Scenario B
BALLERINI Davide, GROVES Kaden, ALBANESE Vincenzo, MATTHEWS Michael, PEDERSEN Mads, ULISSI Diego.

Stage 6 

Distance 162 km
The hilly stage 6 starts and ends in Napoli, with two categorised climbs.

Final kilometres
At 40 kms before the finish line, the road levels out more or less and riders will finish on a stone-paved road.

Analysis
A repeat of the previous day is on the card. A shorter distance could this time play more in the favours of the breakaway. Some famous sprinters who will pass overhill fairly will try to join the breakaway to earn some sprint points firstly, before battling it out for a stage win (ahead of a big mountain day).

Favourites for stage win
ULISSI Diego, MATTHEWS Michael, PEDERSEN Mads, CORT Magnus.

Contenders for stage win
VENDRAME Andrea, OLDANI Stefano, BATTISTELLA Samuele, PASQUALON Andrea, KÄMNA Lennard, HEALY Ben, ARENSMAN Thymen, ROTA Lorenzo, CLARKE Simon, VERONA Carlos, ZANA Filippo, GHEBREIGZABHIER Amanuel, MOLLEMA Bauke, COVI Alessandro, FORMOLO Davide, SKUJIŅŠ Toms, DE MARCHI Alessandro, WÜRTZ SCHMIDT Mads, GANNA Filippo, KÜNG Stefan, ALBANESE Vincenzo, JUNGELS Bob, ZAMBANINI Edoardo,

Stage 7 

Distance 218 km
Stage 7 of the Giro D’Italia 2023 starts from Capua and the first categorised climb occurs 90 km in, at Roccaraso. a long descent follows the climb and the riders will tackle the last categorised climb (170 km in).

Final kilometres
The second climb shows a steeper climb towards the finish line with gradients around 9% and 13%. The race finishes at Gran Sasso D’Italia.

Analysis
Finger-crossed we will see another Remco VS Primoz Roglic battle. With the 35 km TT coming up in two days, primoz roglic will be on the offensive to counteract his slightly shortcoming in the TT against Evanepoel Remco.

Favourites for stage win
EVENEPOEL Remco, ROGLIČ Primož Dark horse: ALMEIDA João & GEOGHEGAN HART Tao.

Contenders for top 10 finish
PARET-PEINTRE Aurélien, CARUSO Damiano, BUITRAGO Santiago, HAIG Jack, MÄDER Gino, VLASOV Aleksandr, LAFAY Victor, URÁN Rigoberto, CARTHY Hugh, FORTUNATO Lorenzo, PINOT Thibaut, SIVAKOV Pavel, THOMAS Geraint, POZZOVIVO Domenico, KUSS Sepp, BARGUIL Warren, RUBIO Einer Augusto, LEKNESSUND Andreas, DUNBAR Eddie, MCNULTY Brandon.

Stage 8 

Distance 207 km

Final kilometre
After the last ascend at Cappuccini with gradient 12-19%, the route descends for 4 km and flattens before 1.6 km before the finish line.

Analysis
After a long day in the mountains and before a long TT, the GC leader would want to take it easy unless some sprinters teams Bike Exchange and Trek-Segafredo have other ideas in mind.
Michael Matthews and Mads Pedersen can send some strong men in the breakaway or they could as well go for it themselves, ensuring a breakaway win without a lot of team willing to chase them back.

Contenders for top 10 finish
VENDRAME Andrea, OLDANI Stefano, SÁNCHEZ Luis León, ZAMBANINI Edoardo, JUNGELS Bob, HEALY Ben, CORT Magnus, KÜNG Stefan, GANNA Filippo, DE MARCHI Alessandro, PÖSTLBERGER Lukas, MOLLEMA Bauke, SKUJIŅŠ Toms, COVI Alessandro, FORMOLO Davide, ULISSI Diego.

Stage 9 

Distance 35 km 

Analysis
An incredibly flat TT which could not be any flatter than this!

Favourite for stage win
It looks all set for the Italian king to dominate here: Filippo Ganna!

Contenders for top 10 finish
VAN WILDER Ilan, ČERNÝ Josef, KÄMNA Lennard, CORT Magnus, THOMAS Geraint, ARENSMAN Thymen, ROGLIČ Primož, KÜNG Stefan, DENNIS Rohan, AFFINI Edoardo, BARTA Will, GUERNALEC Thibault, TRATNIK Jan, LEKNESSUND Andreas, MOLLEMA Bauke, PEDERSEN Mads, ALMEIDA João, MCNULTY Brandon, VINE Jay.

Stage 10

Distance 196 km
The hilly Stage 10 of the Giro D’Italia 2023 starts in Scandiano and finishes in Viareggio, where riders will attack two categorised climbs.

Final kilometers
The last 3 kms of the race runs straight until the finish line.

Analysis
A second category climb prevent this from being a simple day for sprinters. A good breakaway could take their chance.

Favourite for stage win
MATTHEWS Michael.

Contenders for top 10 finish
BALLERINI Davide, VENDRAME Andrea, PASQUALON Andrea, CAICEDO Jonathan Klever, ALBANESE Vincenzo, PEDERSEN Mads.

Stage 11

Distance 219 km

Analysis
This stage looks set for a breakaway, but sprinters will have the chance if it comes back together.

Scenario A: Breakaway win.

Breakaway win Contenders
VENDRAME Andrea, OLDANI Stefano, ROTA Lorenzo, SKUJIŅŠ Toms.

Scenario B: Sprint Finish

Sprint finish Contenders
BALLERINI Davide, CAVENDISH Mark, CONSONNI Simone, BYSTRØM Sven Erik (or MARIT Arne), DEKKER David, DAINESE Alberto, MATTHEWS Michael, ACKERMANN Pascal, GROVES Kaden, PEDERSEN Mads, GAVIRIA Fernando.

Stage 12

Distance 179 km

Analysis
Seems like a bauke Mollema type of day, the second category climb cresting 26 km from the finish line will be essential for the stage win and perhaps even disturb the GC.

Contenders for top 10 finish
The usual breakaway experts (maybe Ben Healy?)

Stage 13

Distance 207 km

Analysis
An undeniable GC day, but the Cima Coppi will interest some pure climbers from the start of the day.

Favourite for stage win
ROGLIČ Primož.
Personal favourite – PINOT Thibaut!

Contenders for top 10 finish
EVENEPOEL Remco, PARET-PEINTRE Aurélien, CARUSO Damiano, BUITRAGO Santiago, HAIG Jack, MÄDER Gino, VLASOV Aleksandr, LAFAY Victor, URÁN Rigoberto, CARTHY Hugh, FORTUNATO Lorenzo, PINOT Thibaut, SIVAKOV Pavel, THOMAS Geraint, POZZOVIVO Domenico, KUSS Sepp, BARGUIL Warren, RUBIO Einer Augusto, LEKNESSUND Andreas, DUNBAR Eddie, MCNULTY. Brandon

Stage 14

Distance 193 km

Analysis
Set for a sprint, but the unique climb of the day will hurt some legs.

Favourites for stage win
PEDERSEN Mads, GROVES Kaden.

Contenders for top 10 finish
BALLERINI Davide, CAVENDISH Mark, CONSONNI Simone, BYSTRØM Sven Erik (or MARIT Arne), DEKKER David, DAINESE Alberto, MATTHEWS Michael, ACKERMANN Pascal.

Stage 15

Distance 195 km

Analysis
Can the GC leaders ruin it for breakaways just for the sake of some bonus seconds?

Contenders for top 10 finish
EVENEPOEL Remco, VENDRAME Andrea, BUITRAGO Santiago, KÄMNA Lennard, CAICEDO Jonathan Klever, CARTHY Hugh, KÜNG Stefan, ARENSMAN Thymen, ROTA Lorenzo, CLARKE Simon, BARTA Will, VERONA Carlos, BARGUIL Warren, VANHOUCKE Harm, DUNBAR Eddie, MOLLEMA Bauke, TESFATSION Natnael, ULISSI Diego, COVI Alessandro, FORMOLO Davide.

Stage 16

Distance 203 km

Analysis
A definite GC battle!

Favourite for stage win
ROGLIČ Primož.

Contenders for top 10 finish
EVENEPOEL Remco, PARET-PEINTRE Aurélien, CARUSO Damiano, BUITRAGO Santiago, HAIG Jack, MÄDER Gino, VLASOV Aleksandr, LAFAY Victor, URÁN Rigoberto, CARTHY Hugh, FORTUNATO Lorenzo, PINOT Thibaut, SIVAKOV Pavel, THOMAS Geraint, POZZOVIVO Domenico, KUSS Sepp, BARGUIL Warren, RUBIO Einer Augusto, LEKNESSUND Andreas, DUNBAR Eddie, MCNULTY Brandon, PINOT Thibaut.

Stage 17

Distance 195 km

Analysis
A sprinter’s day (for whoever is left!).

Favourites for stage win
PEDERSEN Mads, GROVES Kaden, GAVIRIA Fernando.

Contenders for top 10 finish
BALLERINI Davide, CAVENDISH Mark, CONSONNI Simone, BYSTRØM Sven Erik (or MARIT Arne), DEKKER David, DAINESE Alberto, MATTHEWS Michael, ACKERMANN Pascal.

Stage 18

Distance 161 km

Analysis
Another day for the pure climbers!

Favourite for stage win
CARTHY Hugh.

Contenders for top 10 finish
EVENEPOEL Remco, ROGLIČ Primož, PARET-PEINTRE Aurélien, CARUSO Damiano, BUITRAGO Santiago, HAIG Jack, MÄDER Gino, VLASOV Aleksandr, LAFAY Victor, URÁN Rigoberto, CARTHY Hugh, FORTUNATO Lorenzo, PINOT Thibaut, SIVAKOV Pavel, THOMAS Geraint, POZZOVIVO Domenico, KUSS Sepp, BARGUIL Warren, RUBIO Einer Augusto, LEKNESSUND Andreas, DUNBAR Eddie, MCNULTY Brandon, PINOT Thibaut.

Stage 19

Distance 183 km

Analysis
The final day where the potential winners will be fighting next to each other.

Contenders for top 10 finish
EVENEPOEL Remco, ROGLIČ Primož, PARET-PEINTRE Aurélien, CARUSO Damiano, BUITRAGO Santiago, HAIG Jack, MÄDER Gino, VLASOV Aleksandr, LAFAY Victor, URÁN Rigoberto, CARTHY Hugh, FORTUNATO Lorenzo, PINOT Thibaut, SIVAKOV Pavel, THOMAS Geraint, POZZOVIVO Domenico, KUSS Sepp, BARGUIL Warren, RUBIO Einer Augusto, LEKNESSUND Andreas, DUNBAR Eddie, MCNULTY Brandon, PINOT Thibaut, CARTHY Hugh.

Stage 20

Distance 18.6 km

Analysis
The profile of this time-trial really suits Remco, but pure climbers will certainly have their say.

Favourite for stage win
EVENEPOEL Remco.

Stage 21

Distance 135 km

Analysis
The Grand Tour finishes with an explosive sprint, unless someone like Filippo Ganna might try something!

Favourites for stage win
PEDERSEN Mads, GROVES Kaden, GANNA Filippo.

Dark horse – GAVIRIA Fernando

Contenders for top 10 finish
BALLERINI Davide, CAVENDISH Mark, CONSONNI Simone, BYSTRØM Sven Erik (or MARIT Arne), DEKKER David, DAINESE Alberto, MATTHEWS Michael, ACKERMANN Pascal.

Overview

So this Giro 2023 will consist of:

1. Three Time-Trial (Stage 1, stage 9 and that mountainous stage 20).
2. Eight nailed-on sprints (stage 2, stage 5, stage 6, stage 10, stage 11, stage 14, stage 17 & stage 21) (stage 10, stage 11 and stage 14 could still be snatched by breakaways).
3. Six mountain top finishes (stage 4, stage 7, stage 13, stage 16, stage 18 & stage 19).
4. One day reserved for the breakaway (stage 15).
5. Three stages that could swing towards different scenarios
   – Stage 3 could either be a sprint win or a late attack on the slope of the last climb.
   – Stage 8 will be either a breakaway taking it to the finish, or a puncher from the peloton could win.
   – Stage 12 could reward a breakaway for a puncher again.

Overall Predictions

Remco VS Roglič – Who wins?

Primoz Roglič will need to use his faster finish and his experience where and when needed to overcome the small but yet rather significant time that he will lose to Remco. The current Covid situation at Team Jumbo-Visma is quite sceptical, because this and his team’s pinpoint preparations for the Giro D’Italia 2023 could give an edge to Remco Evenapoel in my personal opinion.

Velogames Italy 2023

You can read my review of the most likely riders you would pick for your team and a some thoughts and opinions of some other velogames addicts in part 2 of the Giro preview. All here!

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