Paris Nice 2022
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Primoz Roglic was the big man at 26 points courtesy of 4 top 3 stage finishes, the final GC winner, runner up of the points classification and 3rd in the mountain jersey. Total of 1220 points. At 18 and 16 points value, Wout Van Aert and Simon Yates were valuable inclusions bringing in 1118 and 762 points respectively, Mathieu Burgaudeau, Mads Pedersen and Christophe Laporte earned thier worth with stage wins, The latter also grasps in some valuable assists points as did Nathan Van Hooydonk. Luka Mesgec was the second best 6 points rider with 2 top 10 finishes and finally Hugo Houle was the best 4 credits rider by being contanstly in the top 15 and finishing 13rd in the end.The full rider standings can be viewed here!
Paris Nice 2023
After last year’s domination by Team Jumbo-Visma, the route to the sun of la Cote D’Azur is the attraction of the beginning of the season again. Tour de France 2022, top 2 , Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar are here to sharpen their form in a psychological and physical battle that will take them all the way to July. Simon Yates and Dani Martinez are 2 riders who should also be looked out for in the final standings.
As for the race, the main info to take is:
2 flat stages with a expected bunch sprints, 1 flat stage with an uphill finish, 2 bumpy hilly days, 2 medium mountains stages and that Team Time Trial coming on day 3
On the opening day, after a bumpy day where a parcours will be taken twice. Legs will already hurt chasing down those breakaways and then will come the Cote des dix-sept tournants. This 1.5 km at 4.7% is within the last 10km and more importantly brings modifications seconds!
Last year, Christophe Laporte, Primoz Roglic and Wout Van Aert rode away from the peloton in a similar stage finish on day 1 of Paris-Nice.
Scenario: Expect the pace to go monstrously higher in the last 20kms, tension will be high and avoiding crashes will be the main objectives. Team Jumbo-Visma will be pushing things hard but the likes of Pogacar, Mads Pedersen and Arnaud De Lie will be very attentive so as not to ruin their chance of stage victory.
✮✯✮:Arnaud De Lie
✮: Magnus Cort Nielsen
For what looks like a flat stage leading to a bunch sprint, the Fontainebleau region might have other idea. Popular for its crosswinds , Team Jumbo-Visma and Ineos Grenadiers will certainly take matter in hand.
Scenario: As breakaway will try their luck for these KOM points, the pace in the peloton will gradually increase. The speed of the wind be detrimental to the success of an echelons. Ineos Grenadiers has the perfect weapons in creating the echelons. Other teams who are expected to thrive are Soudal- Quick Step for Tim Merlier and Trek-Segafredo for Mads Pedersen with expert echelons rider Skjelmose. Jonas Vingegaard is not expected to be a victime with a rea; powerhouse he has a his disposition. The real question mark Is Tadej Pogacar and suprinsingly weak team on paper.
✮✯✮: Tim Merlier
✮✯: Arnaud De Lie
✮: Mads Pedersen
Named as Team Time Trial, this 32,2 km on flat terrain is more of an Individual time trial as time taken at the finish will be individually rather than the traditional 4th rider. Leaders riding and sprinting away from their teammates to the finish line will be a very unusual sight.
✮✯✮: Team Jumbo Visma / Jonas Vingegaard
✮✯: Soudal Quick-Step/ Mauro Schmid
✮: Ineos Grenadiers/ Dani Martinez/Pavel Sivakov
Team Jayco AlUla is the team to watch out for with massive improvement in team trial during the past year.
The day starts at the place of birth of double world champion, Julian Alaphilippe. While a breakaway will really try their luck, the finale 6,7 km at 7.1% is not the hardest of climbs but will the terrain for the first of the many battles to come from Pogacar and Vingegaard. Who can follow them?
✮✯✮ Tadej Pogacar
✮✯ Jonas Vingegaard
✮ Dani Martinez
Men eyeing the polka dot jersey, will have eyes on getting into the early breakaway and collecting points from first 3 classified climbs.
Scenario 1: This might very well tilt in the favour of the breakaway after a hard day.
✮✯✮: Magnus Cort Nielsen
✮✯: Alfred Wright
✮: Michael Matthews
Scenario 2: This might also be the first and last opportunity for some sprinters. While their respective teams will work hard to keep the breakaway in sight, a serious threat lies in the cote D’Alyerac (4.5km at 4.3%). Expect Mads Pedersen and Trek Segafredo to go full gas there but it will take more than that to drop Arnaud De Lie.
✮✯✮: Arnaud De Lie
✮✯ Mads Pedersen
✮ Omar Fraile
If it did not work out the day before, expect Mads Pedersen to go for it again. The hard nature of the last third part of the stage will make thing very hard for breakaways. But there will be a tired peloton at the back too.
Scenario: With so many KOM points on the plate and harder days ahead, expect a really good number of strong men to be in the break, Don’t be surprise to see Mads Pedersen who has made his desire to challenge Wout Van Aert for the green jersey no secret and the training starts now. A win for some old school breakaway is a likely outcome.
✮✯✮: Simon Geschke
✮✯: Taco Van der Hoorn (as per Thomas de Gendt recommendation)
✮:Magnus Cort Nielsen
The build up to the first long climb and mountain finish! It will be Pogacar vs Vingegaard time! 15.7km is a relatively long climb who will reward the very best of the climbers. It might not be possible for Pogacar to drop Vingegaard and make up for the time he lost previously but the Slovenian has the sheer power to beat him in final rush to line. Simon Yates is the best climber in the world of his good days and he could launch an early attack never to be seen again.
✮✯✮: Tadej Pogacar
✮✯: Jonas Vingegaard
✮: Simon Yates
The traditional finish to the race in Nice will require the maillot jaune to have a team to control the race, regardless of the the time gap. Last year, Simon Yates placed a memorable attack on the hardest slope of the final climb only for Roglic to have his day and title saved by some extraordinary domestique work from Wout Van Aert. A reduced bunch sprint among the climbers is expected. It could also give some idea to Romain Bardet to show off some of his descending skills and snatch a win here.
✮✯✮: Tadej Pogacar
✮✯: David Gaudu
✮: Magnus Cort Nielsen
Final Overall Standings:
✮✯✮: Jonas Vingegaard
✮✯: Tadej Pogacar
✮: Simon Yates
Paris Nice 2023 Velogames
|Tadej Pogačar||28||He made a big statement in Andalucia a couple of weeks ago and he looks very well. The only thing playing against him at Paris-Nice is an unproven not star – struded team. While team UAE Emirates has very often exceeded expectations at the Tour, much of the same is possible in more demanding TTT and possible échelons. He is Pogacar and only a crash or a serious mechanical can deny him a top 2 spot.|
|Jonas Vingegaard||26||His form at Gran Camino and his factory of a team gives him the slight edge over Pogacar. He is expected to win the TTT and be well protected in échelons. He might not have the power to duel Pogacar but that might not matter.|
|Daniel Felipe Martínez||18||After a promising season start last year, he fell sick before the Tour de France and has not been the same. Then cam Volta Algarve and a surprising shot to form. While we still need to see how he does on long climbs, his TT is good again and that could end being useful. Ineos Grenadiers is a team to rely on for Échelons action as well.|
|Simon Yates||18||This needs to be anchored well. There is no better climber in the world in a perfect day. While his TT has drastically improved putting him among the best, consistency is not his biggest asset.|
|Pavel Sivakov||16||He beautifully started showing some will and confidence in the last stage in Ruta del Sol. Yes, he is part of Ineos but he is definitely not to the level to challenge Jonas Vingegaard and Tadej Pogacar.|
|David Gaudu||14||He will cherish having Küng in the TTT. A reasonable time gap would put him in potential podium position.|
|Tim Merlier||14||He was in the right echelons move in UAE and was well tuned for the first of 2 stage wins. He is the most confident sprinter right now but his chances might be limited to maximum of 2 stages.|
|Romain Bardet||14||Romain only wants to enjoy himself. No more pressure. He is slowly building his shape towards his main objective of the season. Top 5 will be a miracle.|
|Kaden Groves||12||Designated sprinter for the team on bunch finish, he also enjoy uphill drag and can get over hills not as well as someone as De Lie.|
|Jack Haig||12||He was the fourth best climber at Bahrain in Ruta Del Sol. While it might give an indication of his form, not much should be read from it as he is the sole main leader here.|
|Sam Bennett||12||His partnership with Danny Van Poppel is slowly but surely bringing him back to his best but there is zero chance for him to survive the high tempo expected towards the finish of some stages presented as bound to sprint finishes.|
|Ion Izagirre||12||Seemed to be starting 2023 in the same bounding manner as 2022. 3rd behind Vingegaard on the first hill top finish in Gran Camino. It looks like he suffered on the next day to finish 42nd before abandoning on the last ITT.|
|Tobias Foss||12||Volta Algarve confirmed that he is no ready to be a leadsr for Team Jumbo Visma. He will be a massive asset to Vingegaard in the TTT and will be his lieutenant on the mountains.|
|Olav Kooij||12||Should he be present for a bunch sprint finish, he will have the luxury of being leadout by C. Laporte.|
|Arnaud De Lie||12||He realistically could win stage 1,2, 5 and 6. His team will have to work with Trek-Segafredo. Then it will be all up to him to show the confidence shown at Besseges where he held up very well in climbs and beat Mads Pedersen on his playground.|
|Matteo Jorgenson||12||He continued where he left off in 2022. He is a great puncheur who has a decent chance in stage 4.|
|Michael Matthews||12||He will be very disappointed with his mechanical at the wrong moment in Tour Down Under. He will have his chances here either from reduced group finish or breakaway.|
|Pierre Latour||12||Showed great fork and appetite at the beginning of the year. Could be in like for a top10.|
|Mads Pedersen||12||He would have dominated the opposition with his team support and secured the green jersey and a couple of stages. He is not as fast as De Lie but second is not bad. Worth his 12 points, given his TT abilities|
|Magnus Cort Nielsen||10||The swiss army knife of rider is too precious not to be added. Amendments to include him will give a more exciting look to your team!|
|Gino Mäder||10||Good time trialist who will target a stage win first.|
|Jonathan Milan||10||And the list if sprinters who can climb goes on. A bigger threat to De Lie compared to Pedersen.|
|Danny Van Poppel||10||He is more likely to have more shot at stage win than Sam Bennett.|
|Neilson Powless||10||His recent form has been scintillating but this higher grade Compared to who he faced in Besseges and Var.|
|Arnaud Démare||10||Still fine tuning his sprint train as seen in Uae tour.|
|Rohan Dennis||10||Locomotive for team Jumbo visma in those mountains|
|Mattias Skjelmose||10||The young Dane journey towards becoming a GC leader is progressing well. Expert echelons riders, excellent in time-trial, he has been the best climber in the field he faced so far plus he has that punch. Nothing other than a top 10 will be disappointing here.|
|Matteo Trentin||10||The Italian needs to be added to the list of those sprinters who can get over climbs.|
|Anthon Charmig||10||Final top 15 finisher. Potential top10.|
|Alexander Kristoff||10||His sprint win last month showed that he is still has it. He could make use of those troubling stage finishes.|
|Fred Wright||8||He has a chance of finally winning on stage 4 and 5.|
|Bob Jungels||8||Breakaway win chances on day 4 or 5.|
|Maximilian Schachmann||8||He won Paris Nice 2021 profiting from an unlucky crash of the Slovenian of the last day. He DNS on stage 4 last year but his 10th at Tour de Suisse shows he still has it. An interesting option at 8 points.|
|Bryan Coquard||8||No uphill sprint finish. Sorry.|
|Simon Geschke||8||He will be in the breakaways chasing those KOM points.|
|Stefan Küng||8||His climbing has improved yet again this year. Will accompany Gaudu as high as possible.|
|Nick Schultz||8||Will be in breakaway with Fred Wright.|
|Iván García Cortina||8||Yet another who can survive climbs, but not as well as Aranburu would do on stage 4. But movistar might again sprint for numbers.|
|Max Kanter||8||Designated sprinter number 1.|
|Mauro Schmid||8||Soudal Quick step number 1 man for GC. He will benefit from his Team TT abilities.|
|Clément Champoussin||8||New team for the french climber will be interesting to see his ambitions|
|David Dekker||8||Bunch sprinter.|
|Kévin Vauquelin||8||Will be oozing with confidence after his performance at Tour du Var.|
|Søren Wærenskjold||8||Climbs better than Kristoff|
|Marco Haller||6||Part of the Leadout for Bennett|
|Stefan Bissegger||6||After a surprising performance in the TTT at UAE, much can be expected from these guys.|
|Omar Fraile||6||Won from a reduced sprint in Andalusia, he might repeat his feat here!|
|Jhonatan Narváez||6||Expert crosswind rider.|
|Hugo Page||6||The cheapest of those sprinter who can climb. He looked very comfortable in Tour Down Under and snatched 3 top 10 finishers.|
|Taco Van Der Hoorn||6||Breakaway points and possible successful ones.|
|Hugo Houle||6||He will aiming to win again. France is is lucky ground.|
|Edoardo Affini||6||Assists for Jonas.|
|Nathan Van Hooydonck/ Tratnik||6|
|Thomas De Gendt||6||I expect a big breakaway day from him|
|Brent Van Moer||6||He will be aiming to win from a breakaway, yet again.|
|Kevin Vermaerke||6||Potential top 10 finisher. He will be accompanying Bardet.|
|Chris Harper||6||He will protect Simon Yates.|
|Sebastian Berwick||4||Finished 13th at the Tour Down Under. A repeat of that performance will be worth it for 4 points.|
|Taj Jones||4||After his 9th place in stage 1 at Tour down Under, Taj Jones will be alternating for sprint with Tom Van Asbroek if they get the chance.|
|Tom Van Asbroeck||4|
|Jacopo Guarnieri||4||Assist for De Lie.|
|Harry Sweeny||4||Assist for De Lie and potential breakaway points.|
|Thibault Guernalec||4||Decent time trialist.|
|Michel Ries||4||Will aim for a top 20 final finish.|
|Pavel Bittner||4||After his 5th place on the first stage of Algarve, we will see more of him in sprints.|
|Julien Bernard||4||Assist for Mads Pedersen and will be doing what he does best, breakaway in mountains.|
|Daan Hoole||4||A very very good time trialist who will be a major asset for the TTT and some assist points.|
|Alex Kirsch||4||Assist for Pedersen.|